(Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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As Brazil is the latest entrant as major player on the international stage and the talks between President De Silva with Iranian President Md. Ahmedinejad indicated a stand against U.S dominion. U.S would know that Iran was buying time while moving closer to develop nuclear weapon. Brazil took a big risk when it may even have to alienate from the U.S, the most powerful nation in the world. Brazilian President demonstrated to be bold enough and challenge U.S on critical issues from Trade to Climate Change and also on Coup in Honduras to never ending embargo against Cuba.
President De Silva of Brazil is proved to be a new international leader in the making by associating with Turkish P.M and successfully arriving at a deal wherein Iran has to swap the LEU with Turkey. Iran on Monday 17th May,2010 signed a nuclear fuel swap deal under which it will ship 1,200 kilogrammes of low enriched uranium to Turkey, to help end Tehran's stand-off with the West over its atomic programme.
De Silva was least bothered about the apprehension of his political opponents who accuse him on scuttling the prospects of the largest economy in South America which has to ensure a permanent seat in the U.N. Security Council. The President must be having a team of officials with more acumen on deciding the Brazilian Stand in its whole entity without the mildest influence of U.S! There is no chance for Brazil to sign NPT despite the latest constitution prescribe for non-use of nuclear resources for military purposes. In fact Brazil is currently putting into effect what U.S did very often! Earlier in the week, De Silva appeared in Television and blamed all powerful nations as none of head of state pushing for hardest sanctions never had direct face to face talks with Md.Ahmedinjad. He proclaimed that he is different and thus would talk. U.S has no reason to be optimistic about the outcome of Brazil’s meeting with Iran. If it fails naturally the Security Council will move forward with sanctions for which they will expect Brazil to join them! AS Brazil holds one of the rotating seat and thus the Brazilian support is vital for the undivided vote that western powers wish for.
The disagreement between U.S and Brazil was exposed in end March,2010 during the time when United Nations convened a meeting to focus on rebuilding Haiti. During the news conference there was shift in the subject of the meeting when Hillary Clinton hailed the international support for sanctions on Iran which was objected by Amorim, Foreign Minister of Brazil who contended that negotiations will be more effective. There was counter argument by the U.S State Secretary who was supported by the Foreign Minister of France.
The agreement, under which Iran will receive nuclear fuel for its reactors, was signed between foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and Brazil. Iran will ship 1,200 kilogrammes of low-enriched uranium to Turkey, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference after the deal was sealed following an 18 hour marathon talks.
The agreement was brokered by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan who flew to Tehran on 16th May,2010 to join negotiations with Iranian officials in what western and Russian authorities have maintained was last chance to avoid fresh UN sanctions against Iran.
Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim had said that the agreement should "satisfy" international community that no further sanctions are required. He said that the 3-way fuel swap deal reached officially recognises Iran's right for peaceful nuclear energy and enrichment and indicates that "there is still time for diplomacy and dialogue". He wanted that Iran, global community and the P5+1 should raise their confidence level.
Commenting on the fuel swap deal, the Brazilian minister reaffirmed that the agreement followed two major goals -- admitting Iran's right to benefit from nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and the need for Iran to provide global community with guarantees in connection with its nuclear programme.
Brazil and Turkey being temporary members of the Security Council have been very critical of sanctions proposed against Iran. There was a U.S backed Plan wherein Iran initially agreed for swapping the LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) in return for the fuel for its medical reactors. Iran finally took a U-turn and wanted the swap inside the Iranian soil only! After this incident, U.S has been mustering rolls while initiating for fresh sanctions against Iran. Now Iran is persuaded by Turkish and Brazilian diplomats for depositing part of Iran's LEU stockpile abroad in exchange for recognition of their contentious enrichment programme, While Washington acted as a silent spectator, U.S must have blessed the outreach and would have silently premeditated for further sanctions proposed to the 15 member U.N Security Council!
The question unanswered now is that how will Turkey enrich LEU? It must have even agreed for the venue of fuel exchange; will it redirect the material to Brazil or to the Russia or France itself, the same nations where the LEU from Iran was proposed to be shipped as per the previous proposal? Why didn’t Brazil proposed for shipment of nuclear material to Argentina which has the capacity for enrichment? Ironically Iran’s medical reactor was built with U.S assistance prior to the 1979 revolution!
The issue of the U.N draft to impose fresh sanctions despite Iran arriving on an agreement mainly brokered by Brazilian President De Silva should just go off-course. There may be reasons for the west to still suspect Iran as there may be indiscernible areas that are to be cleared by Iran. At the same time U.s and western allies should not go on within mindset of clamping sanctions without looking into the prospects of discussion and negotiations. It is a fact that Iran cannot construe that the Brazilian-Turkish deal reaffirmed the right to enrich uranium and even offered the prospect of cooperation "on nuclear power plant and research reactors construction." The Vienna group will have lot of apprehension including on the reduced quantity of 1200 pounds of LEU to swap when compared with the previous U.S proposal for 2640 pounds!
Further west will imagine that Iran would have developed enough quantity of LEU stock into enriched uranium sufficient at levels needed for development of weapons as seven months were over after its U-turn from the U.S swap proposal. As per the present swap proposal, it may be the fact that fuel rods to be returned to Iran would contain material process to just below 20%.
Both Brazil and Turkey though not permanent members of the Security Council, proved their mettle for resisting pressure from U.S which had been pursuing for fresh sanctions as Iran did not heeded to the caution to impede enrichment.
As per the current proposal, the material returned to Iran as fuel rods could not be processed beyond its lower and safer levels that are suitable for use in the Tehran research reactor. This deal must be enough to ease the international standoff over the disputed nuclear programme, while pressure was mounting for fresh sanctions. The present deal to ship most of the LEU to Turkey as a swap deal will deprive Iran at least provisionally of nuclear stock that could be processed for enrichment needed for weapon development. A month after the final agreement.LEU enriched to a level of 3.5% has to be sent to Turkey where it has to be stored under the joint supervision of Iran and IAEA. The fuel rods would contain material process to just below 20%. This will dispel all apprehensions by west as enrichment upto 90% is needed to produce material for warheads.
Still Iran is in the same boat and made adequate advances while keeping certain activities in complete secrecy. Many times Iran has proved that it is not transparent of its nuclear ambitions. U.S and west will not forget Iran's revelation on the second enrichment plant in Fordo near Tehran which confirmed all doubts on its weapons programme. The key findings in respect of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment near Qom in Iran revealed that IAEA was informed about it only in September, 2009 despite its construction had actually commenced in 2007.
Western diplomats believed that Iran was forced to come clean after learning the site had been detected by spy services. Iran's nuclear program exposed its military dimensions primarily because Tehran has said it will continue to enrich LEU to higher levels. Uranium enriched to a low level is used for nuclear fuel, but if processed to a much higher levels it can be fashioned into a weapon.
U.S and allies would have comprehend that U.N penalties may even fall short of what it would take to cripple the nuclear programme of Iran and thus even a military attack will simply delay its nuclear aspirations. Eventually Iran alone can stop Iran! Iran was never bothered all these years to be stamped as a global hermit not fit to be attuned with any international setups. Probably U.S and allies will focus into this factor which will prompt them to resort for stiff economic sanctions. The initial set of U.N. sanctions against Iran was based on a Security Council resolution passed in December 2006. This prevented the supply, sale or transfer of anything and everything including technology that may enable Iran to facilitate any nuclear activities. There afterwards the U.N resolutions in March 2007 and March 2008 followed the same resolution of 2006 wanting Iran to come out with a clean chit on its nuclear programme.
The draft of U.N. sanctions introduced by new the Big Three- U.S., Russia and China will go beyond the previous clauses of punishment to Iran. It will have rigid measures meant to restrain not only military activities but also financial and shipping systems. Further it would freeze assets of nuclear-related companies linked to the Revolutionary Guard, and will enforce restriction on member nations for not providing fuel or port services to ships carrying banned cargo to the Islamic republic. The sanctions, backed by France, Britain and Germany will put down a basis for espousal of corresponding tougher penalties by U.S Congress and the European Union.
U.N.Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon's remark that the swap agreement could be positive if followed by broader engagement with the international community became more relevant for the Iran as well to present the issue to the international forum and prevail on U.S and western allies. Unfortunately things are moving from bad to worst. As Iran had already set a bad president for uncaringly and adroitly responding to any threat or pressure from the U.S and west, Iranian experts started declaring that the ruling clerics view their pursuit of weapon as a matter of survival and sanctions by themselves will not do the trick.
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